John McCain will win

At the time of writing everything is set for Barack Obama to achieve an historic victory in the US Presidential elections on November 4th 2008. The polls are showing him with a six-point lead at a time when the panicky economic situation seemed to cry out for his reassuring coolness and detachment. McCain is an experienced, older man, but economics are not his strong suit. And his party was on watch when the credit party ended and the economy turned hyperbearish.

There are signs of a rift in the McCain camp. His VP selection Sarah Palin and her fervent supporters are eager to attack Obama with whatever weapons come to hand (some of them literally), while McCain himself is standing up to defend Obama and asking highly partisan crowds to tone down the attacks.

But there are at least three factors set to upset the predicted Obama victory. One is that although there are waverers among both affliliated Republicans and affiliated Democrats, there are more Democrat waverers leaning towards McCain than there are Republican waverers leaning towards Obama. Another is that McCain's support is stronger among older voters while Obama's support is stronger among younger voters; older folk are more reliable at turning out to vote than youngsters. And the third is the so-called Bradley factor - up until the last moment, liberal and moderate white voters go with their conscience, but in the privacy of the booth, they go with their gut and vote for the white guy.